I think today was the near-official end of Fred Thompson, John Edwards, and probably even Mitt Romney. Thompson getting 1% is just pathetic, even if he didn't try there. Edwards had a good debate on Saturday, and unless he wants to fight on and take 15-20% and make Hillary the Queen, he should drop out and endorse Obama and become his VP already. Assuming he doesn't, Hillary and Obama will go toe to toe for a while, dead-even. I do think young voters and the college crowd, once it filters through that there is the opportunity for Obama, will go out in droves and help him. Hillary's win today is overplayed because of the 41-28 Obama polls from the weekend, if they'd been even polls this would be a small story. They each get 9 delegates tonight, and need 2,025. Florida gets 0 Democratic delegates, and it is an old state that was very Hillary, that seriously hurts her I think. Michigan also has 0 Democratic delegates. Obama will win South Carolina and probably Nevada, whose delegates count, Hillary may skip those 2. So by Super Tuesday, Obama will once again be leading.

Romney's two silver medals and current delegate lead are misleading. Very current polls have Mitt at 9-13%, 4th or 5th nationally right now. His master plan had him riding a wave- like BO had the last 5 days- right now that would get him name recognition and momentum everywhere. Instead, he has disappointed, and the story's have been that he has underachieved. Despite the delusions of the Deseret News editorial staff that he is losing due to anti-Mormon persecution, he is losing because he has 0 foreign policy experience, has been all over the place on social issues, and hasn't drawn anything more than the Wall Street crowd in. I have been shocked, and frankly disappointed, at how many people around Salt Lake, brilliant people all over the map politically, support Mitt because they feel duty bound to support a Mormon. They have told me as much, even when they say they disagree on everything with him.

But, even if Romney wins Michigan, which he probably won't, he still has no chance in South Carolina- the decider state 7 straight times now for Republicans. He's 4th in Florida at 13%. And then on Super Duper Tuesday he will win Utah (winner take all 29 delegates) while Guiliani wins California (173 delegates by district) and New York (winner takes all 101) and McCain wins in Arizona (53 delegates winner take all) and a lot of places and Huckabee challenges for a lot of Southern wins. What else will Romney possibly win on February 5th? Idaho?

PS: Obama's concession speech was about the best speech I have heard since W on September 20, 2001.