Saturday, January 05, 2008

It wasn't that long ago that the betting futures had 59% odds that Hillary would be president on Jan. 21, 2009.

Now, the odds seem to be somewhere between 55 and 70%, depending on which analyst is talking, that she won't even be the nominee.

Here's the basic logic:

- Inevitability was her angle, leading all of the Democrats as the lone woman at center stage, and triangulating against Republicans, her tactics

- Now, it appears she doesn't do so well with her name on the ballot. As big of a front-runner who demanded attention in this as she is, it really wasn't a cheap buffet (like on the GOP), it really was 71% no on Hillary.. from Democrats.

- Obama is more of a legit "change" banner waver than she can dream of being

- John Edwards candidacy is quickly going to die, he's a useless 3rd wheel in this act who has absolutely no chance, and this is quickly going to be seen as a either/or/or waste your vote Primary.

-Further, Edwards' support is going to go at least 2 to 1 to Obama, as it includes large amounts of far-left and anti-Clinton elements

- Obama is strangely more liberal (100% against Iraq loudly and always) AND more electable (you don't have 50% of America saying they will never ever ever ever never vote for him, AND, as Republicans know, they would be deprived of another Hillary is the Devil campaign season that they have been able to win with before).

- All of America seems to like the idea of a first black President, the first woman President thing doesn't seem to sell so well. The small group that puts a huge value on the first woman also puts huge value on the first balck. Plus, Iowa's women supported Obama.

I think it is a huge upset and big story if he can get this avalanche rolling. I am absolutely going to vote for whoever the Republican is over him, though. He is extremely left-wing. His foreign policy statements could not be more naive and stupid (well, this side of Huck anyway). He says things like "We need to talk with Iran and Syria and get them to help us stop terrorism" all the time. One might as well talk to Hitler about cracking down on Nazism, or Franco about stopping fascism, or Scott Boras about slowing pro sports salary growth. He seems like the winner of the reality show 'The Next Jimmy Carter."

Come to think of it, Obama has more serious potential to resurrect the Republican Party's future than anything else I can think of.

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