Mitt has to win tonight, and from what I'm hearing, he probably will get another silver medal.
If Mitt loses today, he's dead. No one else is accumulating any delegates to cause the big wide convention requiring split.
A national primary weakens the impact of his ability to concentrate expensive attack ads in small markets. Mitt's never polled above 20% nationally, (think about that, at best 1 in 10 Americans have ever preferred him) and McCain now leads every single Super Tuesday state poll that is available, some of them by 20%. He will ride the same wave that rudy wanted, lots of delegate rich, winner take all states. If McCain wins tonight, he'll get a big bump, glowing media, etc.
If Mitt loses today, he's dead. No one else is accumulating any delegates to cause the big wide convention requiring split.
A national primary weakens the impact of his ability to concentrate expensive attack ads in small markets. Mitt's never polled above 20% nationally, (think about that, at best 1 in 10 Americans have ever preferred him) and McCain now leads every single Super Tuesday state poll that is available, some of them by 20%. He will ride the same wave that rudy wanted, lots of delegate rich, winner take all states. If McCain wins tonight, he'll get a big bump, glowing media, etc.
7 of the 21 Super Tuesday states are in the South, by my arbitrary designation, and the would be Huckabee's will somewhat be stubborn, but mainly switch to McCain by a 2 or 3 to 1 margin. The 3 big delegate rich Super Tuesday states, California, New York, and New Jersey, are places where Mac leads by 9, 20, and 18 points right now, and Rudy's votes will be moving to McCain. The death of Rudy will also help seal it for McCain. I think Rudy's demise, from being the #1 guy, polling at 40-45% for the last 18 months, to finishing 4th, 6th, 6th, 4th, etc., is completely due to the fact that McCain emerged and took all the moderate but war-hawk vote away.
McCain is already a 60% odds bet, almost as big a frontrunner there as Hillary (62%) is. It is a 2 man race now.
As McCain emerges as "the strong horse" he'll get more votes. Fred's 5 votes may have gone to Mitt, but almost all of Rudy, and most of Huck's, will go to McCain. Heck, Rudy may drop out and endorse McCain, and Huck might too.
Sorry, but Mitt HAS to win tonight.
McCain is already a 60% odds bet, almost as big a frontrunner there as Hillary (62%) is. It is a 2 man race now.
As McCain emerges as "the strong horse" he'll get more votes. Fred's 5 votes may have gone to Mitt, but almost all of Rudy, and most of Huck's, will go to McCain. Heck, Rudy may drop out and endorse McCain, and Huck might too.
Sorry, but Mitt HAS to win tonight.
No comments:
Post a Comment