An Obama Referendum Election

McCain's "Obama is a celebrity" ad has become a series of ads, and now the theme of his campaign. His recent attack on Bush- "America is worse off than it was 4 years ago", and the fact that he is supposedly trying to pick between Pro-Choice Tom Ridge and Independent Democrat Joe Liebermann for VP, just solidifies the fact that this isn't an election about McCain, and it isn't an election about Bush.

This election is an up or down vote on Barack Obama.

I doodled at lunch on a napkin and figured that the last 12 Presidential elections have essentially been about 1 person.

4 times the person that the election was mostly about wasn't even on the ballot: 1964 was about JFK, 1968 was about LBJ, 1988 was about Reagan, and 2000 was about Clinton. The Democrats would have loved for this to be an election about Bush, but seeing as how Bush has been in exile since Katrina in 2005, and McCain cannot fairly be linked up with Bush, it won't be.

The Presidential election as an up or down vote on 1 person is interesting. Americans have voted no 1/2 the time, yes 1/2 the time. 2 elections were about voting "Yes" on JFK (1960 & 1964). 2 elections were about voting "Yes" on Reagan (1984 & 1988). America voted "Yes" on Clinton in 1996, and "Yes" on Bush in 2004.

But America voted "No" on LBJ in 1968, "No" on McGovern in 1968, "No" on Nixon in 1976, "No" on Carter in 1980, "No" on HW Bush in 1992, and "No" on Clinton in 2000.

And so that is why attacking Obama is basically the only thing for 1/2 the political country to do the next 85 days. What can a conservative do? A- Jump on the McCain campaign? B- Head to the wilderness for at least 4 years? C- Look to Bob Barr... and help Obama win Georgia and Virginia on his way to 350 electoral votes?

No. Conservatives will choose D- Insult and childishly mock Obama. Character assassination. Lower the level of debate. Not just "He's arrogant", "he's out of touch", "he has no experience", "taxes will go up for everyone even if he says only on households over $250K", "he's Michael Jordan running for President", "he's the most liberal politician since..." and so on- which won't do the trick. Not even close. It is quite hard to attack him for lack of policy detail when he is running against against McCain. It isn't like you can make this an election about conservative ideas vs. liberal ideas. A single chapter of either of Obama's books, or 10 minutes on his web site, lays out more ideology and specific ideas than one could attach to McCain's quarter century political career- which seems more about going with the flow than courageously making a stand.

The political right, totally without enthusiasm for McCain, will have to really tear into Obama to win. I don't think it will stick. I think Obama is heading for a huge win, the most decisive win since 1988.