56-40-4

So, depending on which of the 4 news networks you go to, Obama has a delegate lead of between 179 and 196, which is about 50 bigger than it was a month ago. She is, as George Will wrote in Yankee Fan, Go Home on May 8, now making absurd arguments: "(she) will, creatively argue that she is really ahead of Barack Obama, or at any rate she is sort of tied, mathematically or morally or something, in popular votes, or delegates, or some combination of the two, as determined by Fermat's Last Theorem, or something, in states whose names begin with vowels, or maybe consonants, or perhaps some mixture of the two as determined by listening to a recording of the Beach Boys "Help Me, Rhonda" played backward, or whatever other formula is most helpful to her, and counting the votes she received in Michigan, where hers was the only contending name on the ballot (her chief rivals, quaintly obeying their party's rules, boycotted the state, which had violated the party's rules for scheduling primaries), and counting the votes she received in Florida, which, like Michigan, was a scofflaw and where no one campaigned, and dividing Obama's delegate advantage in caucus states by pi multiplied by the square root of Yankee Stadium's Zip code." So give Hillary a 4% chance of being President, according to InTrade, and a 100% chance of harming Obama and the party by selfishless pushing it nowhere through August.

In the meantime, Obama has a 56% chance, and McCain 40%.

I would handicap this Fall’s race this way.

A McCain :) state is one where Kerry won in 2004, and where if McCain wins he basically will win the election. These are Pennsylvania, Oregon, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

An Obama :) state is one where Bush won in 2004, and where if Obama needs to pick up 17 Electoral College delegates to win the election. These are Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.

So 8 Bush states may be in play, and 5 Kerry states. But remember, Bush won 286-251 in the Electoral College, so a tie of 04 goes to McCain, and losing a couple small states could still result in a McCain win.

To sharpen the saw a little more, I seriously doubt McCain can win in Oregon, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, or Michigan, those would be tough for a Republican in a good year, and the wind and money is blowing hard the other way. Obama is not likely to win Florida, North Carolina, or Missouri. Bush won by at least 5 points in all of those, if I remember right, and they aren’t places where demographics would help Obama.

So 5 states are truly contested, basically. Bush was re-elected in 04 by 60,000 votes in the one scenario (Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada) and 70,000 votes in a completely different scenario (Ohio).

Obama needs to add 17 electoral votes to the Democratic pot, by holding every single 04 blue state (which I bet he will in almost any scenario). Those 17 can be had in any mix from these

Florida 27 not likely for Obama
Ohio 20 will be close, bad demographics for Dems, bad GOP brand there these days
N. Carolina 15 not likely for Obama
Missouri 11 tough for Obama
Colorado 9 better than 50% odds for Obama, I'd bet
Iowa 7 toss-up
Nevada 5 tough for Obama
New Mexico 5 better than 50% odds for Obama, I'd bet

3 to 2 odds for Obama seems about right at this point.