GOP Veepstakes

In the almost irrelevant lone excitement between now and November, it is kind of fun to play the "32 person field", avaialble here http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24672458

List A: Not Gonna Happen

1- Mike Huckabee- At last check, 67% of Americans think he is a religious fanatic nut. He hurts in swing states, kills any blue state appeal McCain may have, and the South is a lock anyway. I think religion at the ballot box went fabulously out of style since 2004, and McCain and Obama, to me, seem pretty devoid of religion beneath it all. Regardless, as a politician, no chance McCain will be this dumb. Zero.

2-6 Lindsey Graham/ Rudy Guiliani/ Joe Liebermann/ Charlie Crist/ Jeb Bush- Moderates/ philanderers/ Democrats/ Bushes + they are in states which are not in play (Florida is now a GOP lock in every scenario outside of Obama landslide) these guys are not the direction where McCain will go

7-11 Condi Rice/ Colin Powell/ Kay Bailey Hutchison/ Bobby Jindal/ Sarah Palin- Would be far too obviousy gimmicky for him to pick someone whose prime qualification seems to be gender or race

12-15 Tom Ridge/ Fred Thompson/ Haley Barbour/ Duncan Hunter/ Newt Gingrich- I don't think he will go with a cranky old man

List B: Utahns

Mitt Romney

16 This is probably the wise move that a consultant would suggest. The conservatives, the financial wing, they know Romney now, and they could all get excited again. It lifts Mitt past Huck forever and hands him "a decade coming soon to a TV screen near you" as the GOP leader. McCain needs someone economic. Romney can conveniently discuss carbon with a guy in June and decide he is now against global warming. He can have a conversation with another guy in July and decide he is against torture now.

Why not? I don't think McCain would say no because of the Mormon thing. I do think McCain will go another direction because he doesn't like Romney much, and doesn't want to help the GOP go that direction in the future- I think he would want his shove of the party to go on a different arc. And unlike LBJ or HW Bush, Romney isn't necessary to the bringing back of that constinuency. Any fiscal conservative would do. There are lots of substitute goods available, maybe a little less known, but they are there.

Jon Huntsman Jr.

He was a 4 seed in that 32 politicia tournament. He's a moderate enough guy for McCain's trendy issues (global warming, education, etc.) and a financial guy, young, popular, fakebake, will be re-elected with 999 out of every 1000 votes, etc. He can fake talk just fine- although I'd worry about his abiity to debate at the next level, that is an unknown. I'm sure McCain's favorite Mormon is Huntsman, not Romney.

List 3: Other Favorites

1. Mark Sanford- Fiscal Conservative, business owner guy, he's actually in the Air Force. In fact, he is probably the purest conservative possible, in an election and at a moment when conservatives are fearing a return to the 1932-1964 era of old fashioned liberalism totally ruling Washington. Sanford has an MBA, he was a 1994 Contract With America guy who kept the 3 term pledge and left Congress in 2000 with high conservative ratings, almost an economic libertarian. One of the 3 elected officials in DC, out of 535, who actually opposed a tiny subsidy for a breast cancer awareness stamp on conservative principles.

He actually brought live piglets into the South Carolina Legislature to protest their Republican pork bills overriding 99 of his 106 vetoes. He is a college budget slashing, vouchers supporting enemy of public education, which most conservatives like. Many hoped he would jump in and pick up the torch after George Allen imploded in Nov. 06, but he didn't, leaving the recent convert of convenience a wide opening. Sanford cut taxes, he maintained state bond ratings to save taxpayers money. He was a farm bill excess killer in the late 90s. He sounds like half of McCain's message personified, doesn't he?

2. General David Betreaus - probably redundant, but so was Clinton/Gore in 1992 (but conservatives wistfuly dream of what a Romney/Betreaus ticket could have done)

3. Businessman- Michael Dell, Meg Whitman, someone like that

4- Tim Pawlenty- He's a little bush league, but suposedly on the short list. Bush league. His radio comment showed how well he could handle speculation of a possibility. Wisconsin in November is a naive dream.

Conclusion

Tim's Odds

Sanford 25%
Romney 20%
Petreaus 20%
Pawlenty 5%
Huntsman 5%
Someone Else 25%

And I will say "I told you so" on Sanford, Petreaus, or Huntsman. I will eat crow if it is Crist or Pawlenty.